Science Council Member Dr. Alpay Azap said that they will be in need of intensive care across Turkey as of next week by pointing out contagion algorithm of the coronavirus (Covid-19).

Newspaper columnist of HaberTürk, Muharrem Sarıkaya shared the notes of his meeting relating to coronavirus with Science Council Member Dr. Alpay Azap from his today’s column.


Sarıkaya expressed that “In our conversation, he talked about the possibility of increase in the number of cases as of next week and he once again put emphasis on people’s requirement to stay home which is the way for keeping the number of cases at a manageble level. We are waiting for those who are infected and with mild symptoms to come to the hospitals as of next week.” Alpay said.
Sarıkaya noted in his article:
Indicating that the virus also has an infection dynamic, Prof. Dr. Alpay Azap expressed his prediction like as follows:
“One patient transmits to approximately 5 patients every week; and this logarithmic is increasing. While this was 25 in the first week, it reaches to 125 in the second week and 625 in the third week. We will witness the logarithmic increase of an increased number at the moment. And this means increase in the number of patients.”
He made a projection by looking at the number of cases.
As he stated not all of the infected people come to the hospital; especially 80% of the young people can get better in a week.
Prof. Dr. Azap drew attention to the remaining 20% and continue by stating that they are worsening within a week:
“And see, one quarter from that 20% are the ones who should taken to the intensive care of the hospitals. In other words, 5% of those were hospitalized are composed of the ones who need intensive care treatment…”


He also needed to attract attention to an important situation at this point:
“And this means that those who will need intensive care will increase starting from next week. We are entering in a process of intensive care unit.”
Upon my question, he also stated that the time of remaining at intensive care unit changes between 4-6 weeks.
In 14 days from 11 March, when the first virus case showed up, in short in 2 weeks, number of cases reached up to 1529.
And the majority of those are in the hospitals and in the intensive care units.
Translated  by Gökcen Başak Doğan