Optimar Polling announced its January 2021 poll which was evaluated by Hürriyet Daily’s Abdulkadir Selvi. According to the poll, AKP chair & President Erdoğan would receive 43,9 of the vote if he ran against CHP Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu who is expected to receive 35,2% as he gains support of also IYI Party and HDP.

In the poll, Optimar asked voters to make a choice based on two-candidate comparisons which revealed Istanbul mayor İmamoğlu as the opposition candidate that has highest vote share against President Erdoğan.

ERDOĞAN-GÜL

Former AKP politician and former president Abdullah Gül is expected to receive only 20.3% against Erdoğan who is expected to get 43.5% while the undecided is high with 36.1% AKP voters do not choose Gül as a potential presidential candidate viable to vote.

ERDOĞAN-BABACAN

Former AKP politician who founded the DEVA Party, Ali Babacan receives 20.9% against President Erdoğan who is expected to get 45.1% while the undecided poll at 34.1%.

ERDOĞAN-İMAMOĞLU

CHP Istanbul Metropolitan Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu is revealed as the most viable candidate to run against AKP chair & President Erdoğan in a potential Presidential Election. İmamoğlu is polling at 35.2% while Erdoğan receives 43.9% and the undecided are down at 20.8%. Among İmamoğlu voters, 90.6% of the CHP voters are the strongest group while IYI Party and HDP voters also announced they would support İmamoğlu, yet the undecided could still tilt the race between either of the candidates.

ERDOĞAN-KILIÇDAROĞLU

The highest support behind Erdoğan is reached only when he runs against main opposition CHP leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who is expected to receive 27.2% in a presidential election and the share of undecided increase to 27%. Against Kılıçdaroğlu government’s far right ally MHP and conservative Saadet Party voters also highly support President Erdoğan, and the main opposition CHP voters’ support falls down from İmamoğlu’s 90% to 81.9%.

ERDOĞAN-YAVAŞ

CHP’s Ankara Metropolitan Mayor Mansur Yavaş is expected to receive 31.8% against President Erdoğan, with 4.6% increase from CHP leader Kılıçdaroğlu. Erdoğan is expected to receive 43.1% while the undecided poll at 25% when Yavaş is the opposition candidate.

ERDOĞAN-AKŞENER

IYI Party leader -the only potential female presidential candidate in the poll- Meral Akşener is expected to receive 30% of the vote against President Erdoğan who is receiving 43.8%. After her own party, the opposition’s National Alliance member CHP shows the highest support to Akşener while the undecided poll at 26.2%.

ERDOĞAN-İNCE

Former CHP presidential candidate Muharrem İnce who has announced he is going to found his own party is polling at 28.6% while Erdoğan receives 45%. Among İnce’s supporters are CHP as the strongest group with 84% of the party’s voters stating they would vote for İnce in a potential run-of, while İnce still receives higher vote share compared to the party leader Kılıçdaroğlu.

ERDOĞAN-DEMİRTAŞ

Imprisoned former HDP co-chair and twice former presidential candidate Selahattin Demirtaş who previously ran a presidential campaign from behind bars is polling at 17% while Erdoğan receives highest support against him with 51.8% as the undecided would poll around 31.2%. In case Demirtaş qualifies for the run of stage, 29.7% of the IYI Party voters choose to vote for Erdoğan while 28.4% CHP voters opt for Demirtaş.

Derya Özkaynak